Reciprocal Pathways Linking Harsh Parenting and Conduct Problems in Early Childhood: The Mediating Role of Emotional Dysregulation.

Externalising behaviour-such as aggression, impulsivity, and defiance-is a persistent form of childhood maladjustment, yet the mechanisms linking early risk factors to later outcomes remain debated. Research has focused on harsh parenting practices and children's emotion regulation difficulties as key processes shaping conduct problems across early childhood. However, while prior research has predominantly examined parent-driven pathways, transactional models suggest that parent and child influences may be bidirectional. Using data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (N = 16,328; 51% male), this study examined reciprocal longitudinal associations between harsh parenting, emotional dysregulation, and conduct problems across ages 3, 5, and 7. A random-intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) was used to test whether emotional dysregulation mediates associations between harsh parenting and conduct problems in both directions. Results provided evidence for reciprocal mediation processes: harsh parenting was associated with subsequent increases in emotional dysregulation and later conduct problems, and early conduct problems were associated with later emotional dysregulation and harsher parenting practices. Both indirect effects were statistically significant. The child-driven pathway (β = 0.055) was larger than the parent-driven pathway (β = 0.013), although both effects were modest in magnitude. Findings were robust to sensitivity analyses addressing measurement overlap and unmeasured time-varying confounding. These results extend prior research by demonstrating that emotional dysregulation mediates bidirectional parent-child processes, with asymmetry favouring child-driven effects. Findings are consistent with transactional models of parent-child dynamics and suggest that interventions targeting both harsh parenting and children's emotion regulation difficulties may help disrupt escalating cycles of risk in early childhood.