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[Epidemiological and control aspects of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in Africa].

Meningococcal meningitis epidemics are a major health problem in sub-saharan Africa where they account for thousands of deaths and cause morbidity in hundreds of thousands of people. Meningitis is caused by Neisseria meningitidis. In Africa, epidemic meningitis is primarily due to strains of serogroup A which are responsible for the largest and most recent epidemics. N. meningitidis serotype 4, serosubtype P1.9, clonal complex III-1 was introduced into Africa in 1987. Since then, epidemics spread through the Lapeyssonnie's meningitis belt to the south. Classically, the 6 months-30 years old ag…

Detection of meningitis epidemics in Africa: a population-based analysis.

Portions of sub-Saharan Africa are subject to major epidemics of meningococcal meningitis that require early detection and rapid control. We evaluated the usefulness of weekly meningitis rates derived from active surveillance data in Burkina Faso for detecting a meningitis epidemic. By analysing the rates of disease in 40 x 40km2 areas within a study region of Burkina Faso, we found that a threshold of 15 cases/100,000/week averaged over 2 weeks was 72-93% sensitive and 92-100% specific in detecting epidemics exceeding 100 cases/100,000/year. During epidemic periods, the positive predictive va…

Toxic epidemics caused by alimentary exposure to pesticides: a review.

Toxic epidemics have become a serious problem during the twentieth century, due mainly to the huge expansion over the last 50 years of the chemical industry, which has placed tens of thousands of new synthetic organic compounds in the human environment. In the particular case of chemical pesticides, their undiscriminating, widespread use, and harmful potential has been demonstrated by the epidemics generated by accidental contamination by pesticides of foods consumed by man, resulting in high mortality and morbidity rates. We have analysed the main characteristics of 63 outbreaks of toxicity c…

Прогнозирование эпидемий оспы: статистический анализ двух финских жителей.

Мы анализируем данные о смерти от оспы в двух группах населения, относительно изолированных Аландских островах и континентальном приходе Ките. Эти данные охватывают 135-летний период (1750-1885 годы). Для оценки воздействия прогнозируемых переменных на 1) вероятность того, что какое-либо отдельное подразделение испытывает эпидемию, и 2) продолжительность периода времени между двумя эпидемиями в каждом подразделении используются модели логиситической регрессии и пропорциональных рисков Кокса. Прогнозируемые переменные включают численность населения, темпы миграции, географическую дистанцию и на

Совпадение в аннотации оригинала
We analysis data on death due to smallpox in two subdivided Finish populations, the relatively isolated Åland Islands and the mainland paris … an individual subdivision experiences an epidemic and (2) the length of the time period between two epidemics in each subdivision. The predictive variables include population sizes, migration rates, geographic distance, and presence or absence of vaccination. Vaccination was found to be the single most important predicative variable (odds ratio = 6.3 in Åla …

Khoikhoi susceptibility to virgin soil epidemics in the 18th century.

It has long been assumed that the devastation caused by European epidemic diseases on aboriginal populations was due to their lack of immunity to these diseases. It is argued here, from data on modern Third-World aboriginal people, that this has not been proven, thus it is likely that smallpox epidemics played only a minor role in the disappearance of the Khoikhoi at the Cape in the early 18th century. Increasing usurpation of their pasture land by the colony and loss of livelihood through livestock epidemics and drought, resulting in their subjugation and a downward spiral of anomie, had a mu…

[Ecologic dynamics of infectious diseases. II. Periodic recurrence of epidemics].

The incidence of hepatitis, mumps, poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis and measles from 1954 to 1984 was studied from the annual records of infectious diseases. Fluctuations were evaluated by Fourier analysis. Periodic recurrency was detected for poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis and measles and was likely for mumps. The asynchronic fluctuation of the proportion of cases and susceptible individuals is considered to be the origin of this phenomenon. Observed fluctuations corresponded to those predicted by the models.

Rethinking Clinical Trial Design to Accelerate Therapeutics for Arboviral Epidemics.

Arboviral diseases represent an escalating global health threat, yet therapeutic development has been markedly slower than for other viral illnesses. Key barriers include the unpredictability and variability of arbovirus transmission, which complicate site selection, limit recruitment, and increase delays and the risk of inconclusive trials. Additional challenges include maintaining trial-ready sites, recruitment within the narrow therapeutic window, ensuring rapid diagnostics, and including high-risk groups. To address these barriers, we propose several innovative strategies based on a Clinic

Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics.

Reliable characterization of infection dynamics is critical for managing endemic, epidemic, and pandemic outbreaks. A persistent challenge i … e frequencies. Distribution-based analyses show that DC values are generally higher in endemics and epidemics, indicating frequent overlapping waves, whereas pandemics tend to exhibit lower DC and fewer subsequent waves. Wave-peak postdiction accuracy varied across outbreak scales, with distributions reflecting perspective-dependent uncertainty. While subse …

Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics.

Using a phylogenetic framework to characterize natural selection, we investigate the hypothesis that zoonotic viruses require adaptation prior to zoonosis to sustain human-to-human transmission. Examining the zoonotic emergence of Ebola virus, Marburg virus, mpox virus, influenza A virus, and SARS-CoV-2, we find no evidence of a change in selection intensity immediately prior to outbreaks in humans compared with typical selection within reservoir hosts. We found a change in selection on SARS-CoV in an intermediate host. We conclude that extensive pre-zoonotic adaptation is not necessary for hu

Projections of dengue epidemics attributable to climate change in Peru.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to influence the risk of mosquito-borne diseases by altering mosquito and pathogen ecology. However, the potential impact of climate change on dengue epidemics has rarely been investigated in Peru. In this study, we projected future dengue epidemics in Peru under various climate change scenarios. METHODS: We analysed 526 033 reported dengue cases from 15 Peruvian states (2016-2023). Using quasi-Poisson time-series regression with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs), we modelled weekly dengue case counts in each state as a function of weekly mean te…