Pivoting forestry and agricultural concessions toward conservation in Southeast Asia.

Expansion of forestry and agriculture in Southeast Asia has driven widespread deforestation, biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. Yet large areas of natural forest remain within concessions, representing overlooked opportunities for conservation and climate mitigation. We identify 42 Mha of natural tropical moist forest within 3,754 logging, oil palm, planted wood and rubber concessions across Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Myanmar. Clearing these forests could threaten 4.6 Mha of Key Biodiversity Areas and release ~1,216 Mt CO2 over 30 years. We assess the economic viability of conserving these forests through carbon market-supported avoided deforestation, estimating break-even carbon prices ranging from US$33 per t CO2 to US$1,677 per t CO2. Our results suggest that substantial areas could be conserved under higher carbon prices, but realising this potential will require complementary finance mechanisms and supportive policy and governance frameworks.