[Cyclicity and the prognosis of tick-borne encephalitis morbidity in the Krasnoyarsk Territory: expert and mathematical assessments].

Long-term extrapolative prognosis is presented, which is based on 30-year data on tick-borne encephalitis infection rates in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Mathematical analysis of many-year ranges was performed later by a maximum entropy method with further frequency filtration, its results allowing to predict the infection rate. Disease rate changes for the last 4 years demonstrated that extrapolative prognosis based both on expert and mathematical assessment (by the entropy maximum method) agreed well with the real data.