Suboptimal initiation predicts short-term prognosis and vulnerability among very elderly patients who start haemodialysis.

AIM: A recent, growing concern regarding haemodialysis in Japan is a sustained increase in the elderly population. Among very elderly people who start haemodialysis, the prognosis is considered to be poor; however, this has not been fully elucidated. This study aimed to discover the short-term prognosis and related factors in very elderly patients who commence haemodialysis.

METHODS: Between January 2008 and December 2013, 122 patients aged ≥85 years at haemodialysis initiation were documented in our hospital. Predictors of 90-day and 1-year mortality after haemodialysis initiation were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Selection of covariates for the multivariate model was based on forward stepwise selection using the probability of a likelihood ratio statistics.

RESULTS: The subjects' mean age was 87.4 ± 2.5 years, and 48% were female. The most common cause of death was infection (38% of patients) and the leading cause of infectious death was pneumonia. The 90-day and 1-year survival rates were 81% and 62%, respectively. Suboptimal initiation was a significant prognostic factor for 90-day [hazard ratio (HR) 3.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-13.43] and 1-year [HR 3.19, 95% CI 1.51-6.76] mortality after adjusting for confounders in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION: Very elderly patients who started haemodialysis had a poor prognosis, and suboptimal initiation significantly predicted outcome. Shared decision-making with patients and their families is needed for initiating haemodialysis on the conditions that appropriate information on the expected prognosis is provided.