Climate change impacts on Xanthium strumarium distribution: Integrating species distribution models with rhizosphere microbiome analysis in China.

Global environmental changes increasingly alter species distributions, yet their effects on plants serving both ecological and economic functions remain inadequately explored. We examined Xanthium strumarium, a species with medicinal and invasive properties, throughout China using integrated approaches: species distribution modeling (Biomod2), niche analysis (Ecospat), and rhizosphere microbiome profiling (Tax4Fun). Our findings demonstrate that human footprint index (66.6% variable importance), elevation, and topographic slope primarily determine current distribution patterns. Future climate scenarios predict habitat expansion of 8.9-28.6%, identifying high-risk invasion zones primarily concentrated in Yunnan, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia provinces. Although niche overlap analysis indicates high conservatism (Schoener's D = 0.8986-0.9338), ecological adaptability shows a modest decline under elevated emission scenarios. Rhizosphere bacterial assemblages, characterized by Proteobacteria dominance and nitrogen-cycling taxa enrichment (Nitrospira, Verrucomicrobia), facilitate adaptation through enhanced metabolic pathways and environmental stress responses, promoting establishment in anthropogenically disturbed environments. Our results underscore the interactive effects of climate-mediated range shifts and microbiome-assisted resilience mechanisms underlying X. strumarium's invasive potential. This research offers essential guidance for managing dual-function species, emphasizing integrated strategies that consider both anthropogenic pressures and microbial associations in conservation planning under accelerating global change.