A prospective sero-epidemiological study of visceral leishmaniasis in Baringo District, Rift Valley Province, Kenya.

The incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was studied in 30 clusters with an average of 98 individuals in each cluster in a defined, endemic rural area of Baringo District, Kenya. The clusters were centred around recent cases of VL. Anti-leishmanial antibodies were measured by the direct agglutination test (DAT) and a clinical examination was performed on 2 occasions between April 1991 and May 1993. Of 2934 individuals tested by the DAT during the first visit, 78 (2.7%) were seropositive, 54 with and 24 without a history of VL. The seroconversion rate was 9/1000 person-years of observation (95% confidence interval 5.1-12.92) among 2332 seronegative individuals retested the following year. During the entire study period, VL was diagnosed in 10 patients, with an incidence rate of 2.2/1000 person-years of observation (95% confidence interval 0.8-3.6). Household contacts of individuals with previously confirmed VL had a higher frequency of DAT positivity than the rest of the population. This difference was significant for both sexes. These results suggest transmission in and around houses.