BMJ open · 2026
Childhood socio-emotional and cognitive development and adolescents NEET (not in education, employment or training): findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.
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Akanni Lateef, Black Michelle, Udu Kalu, Chen Yanhua, Cattermore Rosalie, Esan Oluwaseun B, Creese Hanna, Melendez-Torres G J, Hargreaves Dougal, Adjei Nicholas Kofi, Taylor-Robinson David
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: There is a growing concern about the increasing number of young people who are not in employment, education or training (NEET) globally. This study investigates the impact of concurrent cognitive and socio-emotional development trajectories in childhood on NEET status in adolescence in a UK cohort.
METHOD: We analysed longitudinal data on 8368 children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Exposure trajectories of cognitive and socio-emotional development from age 3 to 14 years were characterised using group-based multi-trajectory models. We used Poisson regression to examine associations between developmental trajectories and NEET status at age 17, adjusting for confounders. Population-attributable fractions were estimated to quantify NEET proportions attributable to the developmental problems.
RESULTS: At age 17, 3.5% of participants were NEET, of which about one-third (38%) were not economically active. Children with persistent cognitive and socio-emotional development problems had a fourfold increased risk of being NEET (adjusted risk ratio (ARR) 3.5; 95% CI 2.3 to 5.3), and those with late socio-emotional problems had a threefold increased risk (3.0; 95% CI 2.1 to 4.3), compared with children in the no problem group. Early and resolving socio-emotional and cognitive problems were not associated with being NEET. An estimated 28% (95% CI 18% to 36%) of NEET cases were attributable to cognitive and socio-emotional behaviour problems in childhood.
CONCLUSION: Childhood cognitive and socio-emotional development plays a critical role in shaping pathways to education and employment in adolescence. Policies and strategies aiming to reduce NEET should target early social and emotional skills alongside efforts to support academic achievement.
METHOD: We analysed longitudinal data on 8368 children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Exposure trajectories of cognitive and socio-emotional development from age 3 to 14 years were characterised using group-based multi-trajectory models. We used Poisson regression to examine associations between developmental trajectories and NEET status at age 17, adjusting for confounders. Population-attributable fractions were estimated to quantify NEET proportions attributable to the developmental problems.
RESULTS: At age 17, 3.5% of participants were NEET, of which about one-third (38%) were not economically active. Children with persistent cognitive and socio-emotional development problems had a fourfold increased risk of being NEET (adjusted risk ratio (ARR) 3.5; 95% CI 2.3 to 5.3), and those with late socio-emotional problems had a threefold increased risk (3.0; 95% CI 2.1 to 4.3), compared with children in the no problem group. Early and resolving socio-emotional and cognitive problems were not associated with being NEET. An estimated 28% (95% CI 18% to 36%) of NEET cases were attributable to cognitive and socio-emotional behaviour problems in childhood.
CONCLUSION: Childhood cognitive and socio-emotional development plays a critical role in shaping pathways to education and employment in adolescence. Policies and strategies aiming to reduce NEET should target early social and emotional skills alongside efforts to support academic achievement.