Using Probabilistic Cellular Automata to Model the Transmission of an Emerging Infectious Disease of Amphibians-A Preliminary Model.

Emerging infectious diseases are major threats to amphibian biodiversity. Ranaviruses (Family Iridoviridae) are a group of globally emerging infections that infect poikilothermic vertebrates. In the United Kingdom, the emergence of this group of viruses has been followed by the decline in populations of common frogs (Rana temporaria) across the country, especially in the southeast of England. Simple susceptible-infected (SI) and combinatorial models have been developed to explain the spread of ranavirus in populations of common frogs; here, we use those models as a basis for developing a simple transmission model using cellular automata with the programming language Python.