Tuberculosis transmission in nontraditional settings: a decision-tree approach.

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission in nontraditional settings and relationships (non-TSR) often eludes detection by conventional contact investigation and is increasingly common. The U.S.-based National Tuberculosis Genotyping and Surveillance Network collected epidemiologic data and genotyping results of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from 1996 to 2000.

METHODS

In 2003-2004, we determined the number and characteristics of TB patients in non-TSR that were involved in recent transmission, generated a decision tree to profile those patients, and performed a case-control study to identify predictors of being in non-TSR.

RESULTS

Of 10,844 culture-positive reported TB cases that were genotyped, 4724 (43.6%) M. tuberculosis isolates were clustered with at least one other isolate. Among these, 520 (11%) had epidemiologic linkages discovered during conventional contact investigation or cluster investigation and confirmed by genotyping results. The decision tree identified race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white or black) as having the greatest predictive ability to determine patients in non-TSR, followed by being aged 15 to 24 years and having positive or unknown HIV infection status. From the 520, 85 (16.4%) had non-TSR, and 435 (83.6%) had traditional settings and relationships (TSR). In multivariate analyses, patients in non-TSR were significantly more likely than those in TSR to be non-Hispanic white (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.7-21.1]) or to have an M. tuberculosis isolate resistant to rifampin (aOR=5.2; 95% CI=1.5-17.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Decision-tree analyses can be used to enhance both the efficiency and effectiveness of TB prevention and control activities in identifying patients in non-TSR.