The validity of clinical practice guidelines for empirical use of oseltamivir for influenza in Thai children.

BACKGROUND

Clinical practice guidelines for influenza have been implemented to maximise the appropriate use of empirical oseltamivir; however, good predictive values are required.

METHODS

Between October 2011 and September 2013, children aged < 15 years who presented at the Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases Institute with an influenza-like illness plus either (i) pneumonia or (ii) being in a higher risk group for influenza complications were prospectively enrolled. Respiratory specimens were taken for real-time polymerase chain reaction testing (RT-PCR). Clinical characteristics, laboratory data and oseltamivir therapy were recorded.

RESULTS

85 cases were enrolled. Of these, the proportions of those with pneumonia, who were aged < 2 years and who had underlying diseases were 74.1%, 56.5% and 38.8%, respectively. RT-PCR detected respiratory syncytial virusamong (35.3%), influenza (22.3by%), adenovirus (14.1%), human metapneumovirus (5.9%), para-influenza (3.5%) and no viruses (25.9 %). Pneumonia (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.05-0.50) and having two clinical criteria (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08-0.76) were significantly negative predictors of influenza. Having cluster transmissions (OR 5.18, 95% CI 1.38-19.37) and a monocyte proportion >7% (OR 3.58, 95% CI 1.15-11.17) were significantly positive predictors of influenza. The mean (SD) percentage of influenza-like illness during the study period was 7.04 (2.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical criteria guidelines yielded a low predictive value (22.3%) for influenza in children. Seasonality, cluster transmission, white blood cell and differential counts may be helpful in diagnosing influenza. Nonetheless, empirical oseltamivir should not be delayed for those in need.