Identifying Fraction Measures as Screeners of Mathematics Risk Status.

This study investigated the accuracy of three fraction measures (i.e., fraction number line estimation accuracy, general fraction concepts, and fraction arithmetic) for screening fourth graders who might be at risk for mathematics difficulties. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses assessed diagnostic accuracy of the fraction measures for predicting which students would not meet state standards on the state mathematics test in fourth grade (n = 411), fifth grade (n = 362), and sixth grade (n = 304). A combined measure consisting primarily of fraction number line estimation items and general fraction concept items was the most accurate screener of risk status in fourth, fifth, and sixth grades (area under the curve [AUC] = .84, .81, and .85, respectively). To maximize efficiency for classroom use, the length of the combined screener was reduced using best subset automatic linear modeling. The study highlights the importance of fraction knowledge for predicting mathematics achievement more generally and validates an effective and practical screening tool for the intermediate grades.